The Turtle Trader Trend Analysis Hang Seng

The Turtle Trader Trend Analysis
Hang Seng Index Futures 2/28/2008
close: 24,551

Be prepared for a potential short term price fall back to the 24,479 area. The current trend is down and all orders on the short side may be considered. Market activity analysis suggests that long trades may have a lower probability of success.

If already holding short positions, we would look to take partial profits at any retracement to 24,669. Traders with remaining short positions after profit taking should consider placing exit stops in the region of 24,669.

This review is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified analysis methods. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Futures trading involves a high degree of leverage, which allows for large returns, but also large losses. Due to the high degree of risk you should carefully consider whether commodity trading is appropriate for you. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in futures trading. The Turtle Trader accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this review or its contents.

Momentum Analysis TiMSCI 29/02/08

MomentumAnalysis
of MSCI Taiwan 2/27/2008


Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 93.9871. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 64.74. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 157.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn't generated until the indicator crosses below 100.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line.

This review is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified analysis methods. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Futures trading involves a high degree of leverage, which allows for large returns, but also large losses. Due to the high degree of risk you should carefully consider whether commodity trading is appropriate for you. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in futures trading. The Turtle Trader accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this review or its contents.

Indicies Futures Technical Points 29/02/08

The Turtle Trader NK225 Trading Review

The Turtle Trader NK225 Swing Trading Review
Nikkei 225 2/28/2008

The arrow symbols identify a trade signal. Long term trends shown as Red and Green Highlights. Blue highlights identify Swing trends

• Open 14,007.0000
• High 14,105.0000
• Low 13,956.0000
• Close 14,031.0000
• Change 207.0000 (1.50%)

Directional Indicator Table
Today's Value Previous Value

+DI 24.000 24.000
-DI 22.000 23.000
ADX 29.000 31.000
ADXR 38.000 39.000

Crossovers
Currently the MACD is bullish since it is trading above its signal line. The MACD crossed above its signal line 18 period(s) ago. Since the MACD crossed its moving average, Nikkei 225 Continuous (Day)'s price has increased 5.14%, and has ranged from a high of 14,105.000 to a low of 12,923.000.

Overbought/Oversold
The MACD is not in an Overbought/Oversold range.

Divergence
There have been no divergence signals within the last 5 periods.

Divergence Signals
Today's price range constitutes a valid long term trend.


Long Term Trend
Currently in Long Mode.

Swing Trend
Currently in Long Mode

*Definition of Long Term Trend and Swing Trend.

Swing Trend 1 - 7 Days.
Long Term Trend 7 - 90 days

This review is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified analysis methods. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Futures trading involves a high degree of leverage, which allows for large returns, but also large losses. Due to the high degree of risk you should carefully consider whether commodity trading is appropriate for you. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in futures trading. The Turtle Trader accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this review or its contents.

Indicies Futures Trading Points 28/02/08

The Turtle Trader Swing Trading System for SiMSCI

The Turtle Trader Swing Trading System
MSCI Singapore 02/27/2008

The diamond symbols identify a trade signal. Long term trends are shown as Red (SELL) and Green (BUY) Highlights. Blue highlights identify Swing trends

• Open 384.5000
• High 384.5000
• Low 378.3000
• Close 383.3000
• Change 2.5000 (0.66%)

Divergence Signals
Today's price range constitutes a valid long term trend.

Long Term Trend

Currently in Long Mode.

Swing Trend

Currently in Long Mode

*Definition of Long Term Trend and Swing Trend.

Swing Trend 1 - 7 Days.
Long Term Trend 7 - 90 days

Directional Indicator Table

Today's Value Previous Value

+DI 24.000 24.000
-DI 28.000 29.000
ADX 23.000 24.000
ADXR 29.000 30.000

The ADX is currently below both Plus and Minus Directional indicators. This system should not be used to initiate any trades right now.

This review is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified analysis methods. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Futures trading involves a high degree of leverage, which allows for large returns, but also large losses. Due to the high degree of risk you should carefully consider whether commodity trading is appropriate for you. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in futures trading. The Turtle Trader accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this review or its contents.

Review of mini-DOW (YMH08) 2/27/2008

The Turtle Trader Trend Analysis
Review of YMH08 2/27/2008
• Open 12,394.0000
• High 12,595.0000
• Low 12,345.0000
• Close 12,566.0000
• Change 171.0000 (1.38%)

Stop and Reverse (SAR)

An SAR Buy signal was generated today. If you are short, this might be a good place to exit.

Directional Indicator Table

Today's Value Previous Value

+DI 19.000 15.000
-DI 22.000 24.000
ADX 28.000 30.000
ADXR 32.000 33.000


Summary

The current market condition for YMH08 is:

Bearish

The close is currently Below it's 200 period moving average.
The close is currently Below it's 90 period moving average.
The close is currently Above it's 30 period moving average.



This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. The information contained herein is believed to be reliable but the accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in securities or derivatives trading. The turtle trader accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this review or its contents.

One of the most powerful trading strategies traders like to employ is to enter and exit of trades using new highs and new lows over a certain period of time. An example what traders would do is to sell on a new 20-day low and buy on a new 20-day high. This allows one to trade on the daily chart without having to follow the market throughout day. The key is this strategy is to only trade in the direction of the trend as that is where you will find some of the biggest moves.

Review of DJ INDX FUTURE 2/25/2008

Turtle Directional Movement
Review of DJ INDX FUTURE 2/25/2008


• Open 12,312.0000
• High 12,410.0000
• Low 12,160.0000
• Close 12,395.0000
• Change 74.0000 (0.60%)



Directional Indicator Table

Today's Value Previous Value

+DI 15.000 17.000
-DI 25.000 24.000
ADX 30.000 30.000
ADXR 33.000 33.000

Summary


The last signal was a Sell 45 period(s) ago.

This commentary is not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified indicators. This information should only be used by investors who are aware of the risk inherent in futures trading. The Turtle Trader accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this commentary or its contents.

PART 1: How do you know if a market is trending?

Part I

How do you know if a market is trending?

My recent survey done with fellow traders shows that a trend could be spoken of as....

1. A price move in the market over any specific period of time.
2. A series of new highs and higher lows or of new lows and lower highs.
3. Trending indicator showing a long or short signal.
4. Up-move or down-move.
5. Elliott Wave formation.
6. Astrological occurrence.
7. Fundamental news item.
8. My stockbroker’s next hot tip on a stock.
9. My coin flipping strategy.
10. My throw-a-dart-on-the-“stock” board strategy….

While some answers are humorous, some foolish, and others technical, which is correct?

Well, based on dictionary definition:

The relatively constant movement of a variable throughout a period of time. The period may be short-term or long-term, depending upon whether the trend itself is short-term or long-term. For example, a rising market is taken to mean that prices of most stocks are in an upward trend.

So there you have it, the definition of a trending market!

Happy Trading!